"Maize yield prediction under climate change using AQUACROP and DSSAT models in Los Ríos, Ecuador"

October, 2024

April, 2026

Agricultural development and sustainable management

Agropecuaria

Ing. Darío Fernando Herrera Jácome MSc. - Director/a
Ing. Víctor Manuel Brito Gómez PhD.
Ing. Diana Verónica Véliz Zamora MSc.

dherreraj@uteq.edu.ec

$ 4538

In progress

The execution of this research will contribute to advancing the understanding of maize crop responses to climate change, using two simulation models, AQUACROP and DSSAT. It is expected that this study will provide valuable information to improve maize yields and develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to help farmers cope with climate changes in the Province of Los Ríos. The evaluation criterion will be based on the accuracy of the models in predicting maize yields. The simulated yields will be compared with real data obtained from the field, using metrics such as the mean absolute error and the correlation coefficient, among others, to assess their predictive ability.

It is expected to demonstrate that the AQUACROP and DSSAT models can be effective tools for predicting maize yields under different climate scenarios. Furthermore, strategies will be sought to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on maize production, thus contributing to strengthening food security and agricultural sustainability in the region. The productive history of a representative plot on the experimental farm "La María" will be gathered. This study will also involve undergraduate students and generate new scientific knowledge in the field of agriculture, enhancing academic training and research in this important sector.


Scientific Journals